Canada’s progress in reducing carbon emissions has slowed down, with oil and gas emissions on the rise post-pandemic, as per the federal government’s latest annual report to the UN. The recently published National Inventory Report for 2024 showed minimal changes compared to the previous year across various economic sectors. Dave Sawyer, a principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, expressed doubts about meeting the 2030 emissions target, highlighting the fragility of current progress.
Released without public fanfare on April 15, this year’s report revealed 2024 emissions at 685 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, slightly lower than the 687 MtCO2 recorded in 2023. These figures indicate a 10% reduction from 2005 levels. Canada’s 2030 goal, established by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2021, aims to lower emissions to 40-45% below 2005 levels, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s objectives and the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.
Despite substantial reductions in electricity generation emissions since 2005, driven by the phase-out of coal plants and increased reliance on cleaner energy sources like hydropower and nuclear power, concerns remain about the industry’s future trajectory. Alberta and Ontario are witnessing a shift towards gas-powered electricity generation, while renewable energy growth lags. Additionally, the oil and gas sector, a major emissions contributor, has been expanding since 2024, particularly in Alberta and British Columbia, driven by projects like the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and the new LNG export terminal in Kitimat, B.C.
Emissions from oil and gas production, a significant source of emissions in Canada, have been on the rise, notably in the oilsands region of northern Alberta. This growth, combined with limited emission controls, poses a challenge to overall emission reduction efforts in the country. Without addressing the escalating oilsands emissions, Canada’s emission levels are likely to remain stagnant, according to experts.