Iran conducted attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, capturing two of them on Wednesday, escalating its targeting of vessels in the crucial waterway. These assaults followed a move by U.S. President Donald Trump to prolong a ceasefire while upholding an American blockade of Iranian ports.
The ongoing tension between the U.S. and Iran has led to a virtual halt in exports through the strait, a passage responsible for facilitating 20% of global traded oil during peaceful times. Iranian reports indicated that the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was taking control of the two seized ships, signaling a further escalation. However, the White House clarified that these seizures did not breach the ceasefire terms.
The conflict has triggered a surge in gas prices well beyond the region and inflated the prices of essential goods and services. The longer the strait remains closed, the more severe and widespread the economic repercussions will become, delaying potential recovery. The cost of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, surpassed $100 US per barrel, marking a 35% surge from prewar levels, although financial markets seemingly remained unfazed.
Dan Jørgensen, the European Union energy commissioner, warned of lasting consequences for consumers and businesses, equating the crisis to significant energy disruptions of the past. He estimated that Europe is losing around $600 million US daily due to the disruption.
Iranian media reported that the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas were being escorted to Iran after the attacks. Technomar, the management firm for the Liberian-registered Epaminondas, detailed an encounter with a manned gunboat off Oman’s coast, resulting in damage to the ship’s bridge. Another cargo vessel faced gunfire later on, although no damages were reported, and the ship was subsequently halted in the water. The Guard also targeted a third ship, known as the Euphoria, which was stranded on the Iranian coast.
Since the inception of the conflict on Feb. 28, with a surprise attack by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, over 30 ship attacks have occurred in the Middle East. Vortexa, an analytics company focusing on global energy and freight markets, identified movements of sanctioned and Iranian-linked tankers in and out of the Persian Gulf post the U.S. blockade on April 13, including shipments laden with Iranian crude.
The uncertainty persists regarding when negotiations will resume, as Iran’s control over the strait has proven to be a strategic advantage. While the ceasefire halted American and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s missile strikes on Israel and the wider Middle East, maritime threats persist due to attacks in the strait and previous interdictions of Iranian ships.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, emphasized the significance of a complete ceasefire that is not violated by blockades affecting the global economy. Iranian officials expressed skepticism about upcoming talks with the U.S., citing a lack of good faith in negotiations. The Iranian mission in Egypt confirmed that no delegation would attend talks in Pakistan until the U.S. lifted its blockade.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that President Trump had not set a deadline for receiving proposals from Iran, indicating that the timeline would be determined by the U.S. commander in chief. The situation in Tehran and Lebanon reflects the widespread apprehension and fragility surrounding the ceasefire and potential future developments.