Electricity demand in Canada is projected to experience significant growth by 2050, as outlined in the latest modeling by the national energy regulator. The forecasts also indicate a substantial rise in natural gas production and an expansion of renewable energy sources across the country.
According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), a 44% increase in power demand is expected from 2023 to 2050, driven by rising residential, industrial, and technology sector needs, particularly AI data centers. The country’s electricity system capacity is anticipated to double from 160 gigawatts in 2023 to 310 gigawatts in 2050, with wind energy playing a primary role in the production surge. The CER predicts that wind energy generation could soar from 40 terawatt-hours in 2023 to 277 terawatt-hours by 2050.
Darren Christie, the CER’s chief economist, highlighted the growth of wind and solar energy alongside more stable sources like hydroelectricity, nuclear, and natural gas to meet the escalating demand. The report also emphasizes the increasing importance of interprovincial power lines in balancing electricity supply and demand, with total transmission capacity expected to grow by about 70% by 2050.
Ontario is spearheading nuclear power expansion with the construction of four small modular nuclear plants, with other provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan pursuing similar projects. The modeling suggests that oil and natural gas consumption will remain relatively steady over the coming decades, with a minor 1% increase in fossil fuel use by 2050 compared to 2023.
In terms of natural gas production, the CER projects growth from around 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to between 21 billion and 32 billion by 2050, depending on the development of liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities. The uncertainty surrounding global commodity prices makes long-term oil production projections uncertain, with scenarios ranging from an 18% increase to a 12% decline by 2050.
The CER’s four scenarios, including a traditional baseline, forecast varying trends in oil production, with the traditional model peaking at 6.1 million barrels per day by 2042 before stabilizing at 5.9 million by 2050. Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decrease across all scenarios due to a cleaner electricity grid and improved environmental practices, with the potential for emissions to plateau by 2035 under current policies.
To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, a comprehensive shift towards low-carbon technologies is necessary, as highlighted in the latest CER energy outlook. The national energy regulator’s recent report marks the first update since 2023, reflecting the ongoing evolution of Canada’s energy landscape.