A plan put forward by South Bow, a Canadian company, to resurrect sections of the scrapped Keystone XL oil pipeline could potentially boost Canada’s crude oil exports to the United States by over 12 percent, pending approval from U.S. President Donald Trump and the construction of additional connections to U.S. refining centers.
The revised proposal outlines a new pathway across the United States compared to the previous Keystone XL pipeline, which was canceled by former U.S. President Joe Biden in 2021 due to prolonged opposition from Indigenous groups and environmental activists.
South Bow, a company established by TC Energy in 2024 to continue its oil pipeline operations, is contemplating the revival of portions of the pipeline already constructed in Alberta, holding all the necessary permits in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed the pipeline’s potential revival with Trump in October, suggesting that it could serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations concerning the renewal of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) trade agreement.
Trump, amid strained relations with Canada due to tariff disputes and annexation threats, has consistently advocated for lower oil prices as many U.S. refiners heavily rely on the approximately 4.4 million barrels of crude oil that Canada exports to the U.S. each day.
Bridger Pipeline, a potential U.S. partner for South Bow, has recently submitted a proposal to Montana regulators for the construction of a 1,038-kilometer pipeline capable of transporting up to 550,000 barrels of oil per day, starting near the U.S.-Canada border in Phillips County, Montana, and extending to Guernsey, Wyoming.
However, analysts point out that Guernsey is not a primary crude oil market, necessitating the establishment of additional links to transport oil to major refining centers such as Cushing, Oklahoma; Patoka, Illinois; and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Prime Minister Mark Carney raised the Keystone XL pipeline project during conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, according to a source CBC News is not identifying because they were not authorized to speak publicly. The news has proponents wondering whether the more-than-once cancelled project could be revived again.
According to Matthew Lewis, founder of Plainview Energy Analytics, the most viable approach would involve constructing a new pipeline spanning over 680 kilometers from Guernsey to Steele City, Nebraska, where it could link up with the existing Keystone mainline system, facilitating the transfer of oil to underutilized pipelines leading to Cushing, Patoka, and Wood River, Illinois.
However, the