Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded in the Caribbean, is expected to make landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday after experiencing rapid intensification, a weather phenomenon attributed to climate change that is increasingly causing destructive storms in the region.
Initially classified as a tropical storm on Saturday morning, Melissa’s wind speeds surged from 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour within a day, leading to its upgrade to a Category 5 hurricane by Monday morning. By the afternoon, the storm’s winds had accelerated to 281 kilometers per hour, marking it as the most potent storm globally in 2025.
Characterized by its slow movement, Melissa poses a significant threat, according to Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the U.K.’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science. The storm’s lethargic pace heightens the risk of heavy rainfall over Jamaica, potentially causing severe flooding.
The storm has already claimed six lives across the Caribbean, prompting Jamaica to brace for what could be its most severe hurricane disaster to date. Forecasts suggest that some regions in the country could receive up to a meter of rainfall from Melissa.
Last year, Hurricane Beryl struck the southern part of Jamaica, resulting in losses amounting to approximately $200 million US, equivalent to 1.1 percent of the country’s GDP. Deoras attributes Melissa’s rapid development to the unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Caribbean, which are currently two to three degrees above normal. These warm conditions provided the necessary energy for Melissa’s swift intensification as it traversed the region.
The warming of ocean surfaces is a global trend affecting climate patterns. Unusual temperatures in North America this fall have been linked to a massive heatwave in the Pacific Ocean. Last year, record-high global sea surface temperatures were reported, indicating a trend towards warmer oceans impacting climate systems.
Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central, highlights that climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of hot ocean temperatures, making extreme rapid intensification events like Melissa more frequent. Their analysis suggests that Melissa’s top wind speed has been bolstered by 16 km/h due to climate change, amplifying the potential damages by 50 percent.
Winkley notes that four out of this season’s five hurricanes have undergone extreme rapid intensification, a trend that was rare a few decades ago but is now observed on a regular basis each season.