The treaty that limited the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia has lapsed, raising uncertainties about the intentions of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The expiry of the New START treaty, the most recent agreement in a series of nuclear weapons limitations dating back to 1972, means that there is currently no formal agreement in place to restrict the size of the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.
Experts have varying opinions on whether the end of the treaty will trigger a new nuclear arms race, but there is a consensus that the agreement requires significant revisions to address current nuclear dynamics, notably the expansion of China’s weapons program. However, the prospect of Trump, Putin, and China’s president, Xi Jinping, swiftly reaching a new consensus on an updated agreement appears optimistic at best.
Thomas Countryman, a former U.S. diplomat who previously served as acting under-secretary of state for arms control and international security, has expressed concerns about the increased risk of a nuclear weapon being used in an attack, likening the current situation to the heightened tensions during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Countryman emphasized the need for vigilance as the treaty comes to an end.
The now-expired treaty had set limits on the deployment of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles for both the U.S. and Russia. While Putin had hinted at renewing the treaty before a summit with Trump in Alaska, the proposal did not materialize. Trump dismissed the significance of the treaty’s expiration, stating that a new, improved, and modernized agreement could be negotiated to replace it.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed the treaty’s expiration and highlighted the necessity of involving China in future arms control agreements due to its expanding nuclear capabilities. A Pentagon report projected that China is on track to increase its nuclear warhead count from around 600 to over 1,000 by 2030.
Negotiations are ongoing between the U.S. and Russia to uphold the weapon limits previously outlined in the New START treaty without a formal extension. Despite these efforts, uncertainties persist regarding the implications of the treaty’s expiration. Experts warn of a potentially more turbulent environment in the absence of such agreements, stressing the importance of addressing China’s nuclear buildup in future arms control discussions.