A rising understanding of the impact of carbon emissions on extreme weather events like heat waves, floods, and droughts is emerging from the expanding realm of climate attribution studies. These studies analyze the increased likelihood and severity of specific weather disasters due to climate change.
A recent study published in the journal Nature by climate researchers from Europe and the U.S. has delved deeper into this analysis. The study directly correlates heat waves, the deadliest form of disaster, to major fossil fuel companies and their products. By examining major heat waves from 2000 to 2023, the researchers linked these events to entities known as “carbon majors,” including state-owned companies like Gazprom and Saudi Aramco, investor-owned firms such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, and Canadian companies like Suncor and Cenovus, as well as nation-states producing fossil fuels like coal in India and the former Soviet Union.
The study utilized data on the lifetime carbon emissions of these carbon majors and existing research demonstrating the exacerbation of heat waves by carbon emissions. By connecting these aspects, the researchers estimated the influence of a specific carbon major’s emissions on the severity and probability of individual heat waves.
Findings revealed that global heat waves during 2010-2019 were approximately 1.68 degrees Celsius hotter due to climate change, with 0.47 degrees attributed to just 14 major carbon producers. The study provided detailed insights into the contributions of each of the 180 carbon majors to the 213 heat waves studied, demonstrating the significant impact even small companies can have on the likelihood of extreme weather events.
This research marks a new phase in holding fossil fuel companies accountable for climate change, potentially impacting climate litigation worldwide. While the study does not quantify the financial damage caused by each company, it lays the groundwork for assessing monetary liabilities in the future.
In light of the current political landscape favoring fossil fuels, the study’s implications have sparked discussions on reshaping climate policies. Canada, for instance, has shifted away from key climate initiatives, prompting concerns about meeting emission reduction targets. As countries and companies realign their environmental strategies, the study’s revelations could influence legal actions aimed at addressing climate change responsibilities.
The study aligns with a recent advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice, which underscores the potential legal repercussions for countries and companies contributing to climate disasters. Such developments are expected to bolster climate litigation efforts, providing a foundation for seeking accountability from entities responsible for environmental damages.