Local security analysts suggest that the recent U.S. attack on Venezuela has triggered changes in the activities of guerrilla groups along the Venezuela-Colombia border. Concerns have arisen regarding the potential betrayal of guerrilla locations by Venezuelan officials, which could escalate into a broader conflict if the U.S. deploys troops in the region.
Following the attacks on January 3, reports have emerged indicating increased movement of guerrilla forces on both sides of the border. Experts note that the National Liberation Army (ELN), the most prominent guerrilla group in the area, has reportedly shut down some camps in Venezuela due to fears of betrayal by regime officials to U.S. authorities.
Jorge Mantilla, an expert in armed conflicts and national security from Bogotá, highlighted that the ELN is adapting its security strategies and social control mechanisms in Venezuelan communities where its leaders are present. Additionally, the ELN has halted training operations and the formation of a special forces unit with Venezuelan military assistance.
Despite uncertainties surrounding future developments, Mantilla mentioned that the ELN had anticipated a U.S. intervention in Venezuela. In a past incident, the ELN had warned the former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro about potential traitors within the Venezuelan military.
Moreover, the recent attack could pave the way for the ELN to expand its influence and transform into a continental guerrilla force in the event of U.S. military intervention or fragmentation of the Venezuelan regime. Ivan Mordisco, a leader of a group linked to the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), called for unity among guerrilla groups and the Venezuelan military to resist the U.S.
Gerson Arias, a researcher at Colombia’s Ideas for Peace Foundation, expressed skepticism about Mordisco’s proposal due to his lack of credibility and criminal status. The Colombian government has placed a substantial bounty on Mordisco’s head, making collaboration unlikely.
The ELN, with an estimated force of 6,000 to 8,000 members, operates in border regions of Colombia and Venezuela, exploiting natural resources and engaging in illegal activities for revenue. The group has historical ties to the Venezuelan regime since the era of Hugo Chávez and shares a common ideological framework with the Bolivarian Revolution.
In a recent development, U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro have agreed to collaborate against the ELN. The U.S. has a history of supporting Colombian military efforts against armed groups in the region, although long-term peace remains elusive.
Eliana Paola Zafra, a human rights advocate in Cúcuta, Colombia, emphasized the need for comprehensive peace-building efforts and community empowerment to safeguard human rights and promote stability in Latin America.