The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its prediction for home sales in 2026, lowering the forecast. However, recent data indicates a slight increase in the number of homes sold in June compared to the previous month.
The surge in oil prices led to inflation and raised the likelihood of the Bank of Canada increasing interest rates. This resulted in a rise in bond yields and fixed mortgage rates earlier this year. While these pressures have eased somewhat, CREA notes that they continued to impact the housing market in recent months, along with a faster-than-expected decline in Canada’s population.
According to CREA, the national sales forecast for 2026 was revised downward due to a sluggish start to the year and a delayed recovery in the housing market. The association had previously anticipated a small rise in home sales for 2026 but now expects a 1.4% decrease compared to 2025. This revision follows a prior downgrade in predictions for the year.
June data revealed a 0.5% uptick in national home sales from the previous month, with a 0.9% increase compared to June 2025. CREA’s senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, stated that this growth builds on positive momentum since May, suggesting a market that is gradually stabilizing.
The MLS home price index reported a benchmark price of $657,700 for homes in the previous month. While prices in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta remained lower, the declines are narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization of prices across the country.
Cathcart mentioned that after experiencing cold markets in Ontario and B.C., these regions are expected to see a slight improvement by year-end, while areas like the Prairies and Quebec are witnessing a slowdown.
With home prices steadying and interest rates remaining relatively unchanged, Cathcart believes these factors could prompt hesitant buyers to enter the market.