The Conservative and NDP parties are currently considering their options regarding the forthcoming federal budget and whether they might contribute to an election being triggered by rejecting it, according to various sources who spoke with CBC News.
According to high-ranking Conservative officials, the party’s leadership is not in favor of an election at this moment. However, they are also reluctant to support the new Liberal government’s inaugural budget due to the reputational risks involved in endorsing Prime Minister Mark Carney and an agenda they do not agree with.
A Conservative insider mentioned that the idea of the Liberals potentially failing to secure enough votes for the budget is “not unfounded,” as there currently aren’t enough votes anticipated to ensure its passage in the House following its introduction on Tuesday.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has outlined several conditions to the Liberals in exchange for support on the budget, such as eliminating the industrial carbon tax and maintaining the deficit under $42 billion. Nonetheless, there is little hope that these demands will be met, given that the government has already indicated they are non-negotiable.
The Bloc Québécois has also put forth significant demands, such as increased Old Age Security benefits, enhanced health transfers to provinces, and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers—initiatives that are unlikely to be fully realized, given the government’s focus on cutting expenses.
However, the Liberals have reached out to the Bloc and have agreed to incorporate at least one of their requests—an initiative to tackle a tax-evasion tactic that the trucking sector has long resisted.
Conservatives have reportedly engaged with both the NDP and the Bloc regarding strategies for the budget vote, according to unnamed sources. CBC News has opted not to disclose these sources as they were not authorized to discuss internal matters publicly.
Sources indicate that the Conservative leadership is not inclined to pursue an election at this time but is against endorsing the forthcoming budget. The most probable outcome appears to be that some of the NDP’s seven MPs may abstain from voting, enabling the budget to pass.
A senior NDP official and two Conservative insiders suggest that the most likely scenario is for a portion of the NDP’s seven MPs to abstain from voting, which would facilitate the budget’s passage.
During a Conservative caucus meeting on Wednesday, MPs were informed that the party’s strategy is to refrain from criticizing the NDP for the time being, sources revealed to CBC News.
The Liberal minority government requires three more votes, or two if the Speaker decides to break a tie.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May expressed to CBC News on Thursday that she would not back a budget that includes any subsidies for fossil fuels, but she is awaiting the budget document to determine her voting position.
Should the Liberals fail to garner sufficient support, the government could collapse, leading Canadians towards an election before the holiday season.
Conservative insiders familiar with the party’s outreach efforts on the budget indicated that the NDP MPs lack a unified stance—and that the caucus operates with minimal structure.
One Conservative source noted that the small NDP caucus may have diverse priorities, which could simplify persuading individual MPs to support the budget.
This situation could provide the necessary votes to pass the budget through the House of Commons without requiring the NDP’s full endorsement of the Liberal agenda.
Government House leader Steven MacKinnon is publicly encouraging the Conservatives to support the budget to prevent an election so soon after the last one.
“Walk down the aisle and tell the grinchy leader of the Opposition to vote for the budget. Don’t ruin Christmas. Build Canada strong,” he stated to a Conservative MP during question period on Thursday.
Government House leader Steven MacKinnon urged the Conservative leader to avoid being ‘grinchy’ and let his caucus support the budget. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)
Following a disappointing performance in the last election, the NDP is facing financial constraints and lacks a leader. The party recorded its worst results in decades after supporting the previous Liberal minority government.
With a permanent leader set to be chosen in March, the NDP is not ideally positioned to embark on another costly national campaign in the near future.
However, an NDP source indicated that the parliamentary caucus has yet to make a decision on how to proceed.
Two Conservative insiders revealed to CBC News that MPs were advised at Wednesday’s caucus meeting that they can undertake pre-approved travel when the budget votes are anticipated, but they must remain available for electronic voting.
When asked on Tuesday whether all of his MPs are expected to endorse the budget or if some might abstain, Poilievre did not provide a direct answer but reiterated that Conservatives are seeking an “affordable” budget.
When asked by a reporter if he intends to bring down the government in the upcoming federal budget vote, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stated he seeks an ‘affordable budget’ and reduced government expenditure.
The Conservatives’ strategy of refraining from criticizing the NDP marks a departure from their approach in the previous Parliament leading up to the spring federal election.
Poilievre had previously been harshly critical of former NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and his choice to support former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau through the confidence-and-supply agreement.
In the months prior to the last federal election, the Conservatives also ran attack advertisements against the NDP—tactics that likely diminished party support, ultimately benefiting the Liberals in various ridings.
The decision to ease off on the NDP was not communicated during the caucus discussions about the budget, but it reflects the current strategic direction of the party, according to a source.
While interim NDP Leader Don Davies has not made explicit demands, he has indicated that his party seeks targeted investments to “support working families burdened by high prices,” “good jobs,” affordable housing, and investments meant to “bolster public health care.”
As the Liberals indicate they currently lack the votes to pass their budget on November 4, interim NDP Leader Don Davies states the party will wait to review the document before determining their support, noting that the Liberals have not ‘invited other parties in to craft the budget … so they run the risk of not earning our support.’
In a Tuesday interview with CBC’s Power & Politics, Davies emphasized that “now is the time to invest” and that his party will not endorse a budget featuring significant cuts—cuts that might emerge given Carney’s commitment to balancing the government’s operational budget within three years.
In contrast to other parties that have effectively ruled out backing the budget, Davies expressed a desire to review the actual content of the document before making a firm decision.
“We cannot accept an austerity approach,” Davies told host David Cochrane. “We will wait and see what the budget reveals.”